Wednesday, May 24, 2006

So this is it, we're going to die

Effect Measure: Indonesia: probably H2H2H

A report from WHO of human-to-human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (aka "bird flu" -- a misnomer, as is "avian influenza", as all strains of influenza are essentially bird viruses). This is very very bad. H5N1 isn't that virulent -- yet -- but it's getting there. We're coming close to a pandemic strain. I've been reading about the 1918 epidemic recently, and am convinced that it was the greatest disaster (not counting wars, though separating its effects from the First World War is difficult at times) in American history. In a much more urbanized and mobile population like today, it could be far worse, and by the time we know that a major outbreak is underway in southeast Asia it will be too late, because carriers will already be here.

3 Comments:

At 6:10 AM, Blogger Revere said...

Just a small correction. H5N1 is one of the most virulent viruses on earth, judged by its case fatality rate. Virulence is the ability to cause severe disease, not just disease. I assume you meant "transmissible" or "contagious", not virulence.

 
At 8:25 AM, Blogger Jon said...

One aspect of this virus that should scare anyone is it's mortality.

Averaging about 50% or higher in most outbreaks. The latest cluster was 85% mortality.

IF it mutates, and IF it explodes into the population, it would be a disaster on the scale of the plague in the middle ages.

 
At 12:17 AM, Blogger LatNam said...

It's just like "The Stand." Maybe I should start for Boulder..

 

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