Saturday, June 01, 2002

Military Disparity Adds to Uncertainty (washingtonpost.com)

Another problem -- and one that to me makes the Cold War paradigm invalid in the subcontinent -- is that India's conventional military is clearly stronger than Pakistan's. In the Cold War, the two sides were fairly well matched. (Actually, I think both sides were afraid they would lose a conventional war.) Here, India's roughly twice as powerful as Pakistan -- and the gap is growing -- and so they aren't afraid of getting into a war. And if there is a war, it's likely the only way Pakistan will be able to survive is by going nuclear -- tactical at first, but possibly going to strategic bombs later on.

The third problem that comes to mind is command-and-control. One of my nightmare scenarios is that one officer will be able to start a nuclear exchange without orders from Islamabad or New Delhi.

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